Convex Value Platform

A cutting-edge desktop platform. Analyze probability distributions of price returns for any US stock and many global stocks. How many times has SPY had a 5% daily change? What is the mean daily return for Tesla in the past year? What about in the past 30 days? Where do 80% of all past daily returns fall for Apple? What is the return of Zoom in the past 5 days? Since the start of the year?

All answers in your fingertips.

For example - here is the probability distribution for Tesla Stock (TSLA) - to get this we simply type 'TSLA' on the upper left-hand side.

TSLA Probability Distribution by Convex Value Platform

A brief rundown of what you'll get:

The top bar shows you the initial trading date and price of the instrument and the last trading date an price. It tells you how many trading days it has had as well as the all-time high and all-time low - the big picture.

Below you see an all-time chart plotting the daily closing price. Unlike most charts you find - this one plots prices against a log scale - allowing you to visualize in terms of returns as opposed to actual prices.

The chart has a dynamic window that you can expand or contract or slide along the entire chart. This allows you to see the returns for the selected range. Above it, you can see the returns for the selected range.

In the above picture, we selected from December 2012 where TSLA stock was trading at 33 up until June 2020 where it was trading at 885, and in addition to the high and low for the selected region, we can see there has been a 2514% return.

The selection window in the price chart doesn't only affect those indicators. Below the price chart, you can see a histogram of daily returns. The data from this histogram comes only from the selected range in the price chart. This allows you to examine a probability distribution for the past month, year, the entire history, or any range you like.

On the right-hand sidebar you can see descriptive indicators of the probability distribution for the selected time range. For example from December 2012 up until June 2020, TSLA has had a mean daily return of -0.1% and a standard deviation of 3.37%. The largest daily return it's had in this period is 22% and the largest downside daily return has been 19.6%.

On the sidebar, you can see how there is information under 'Selected Range' and 'Total'. This is because in addition to selecting a price range to examine the distribution - you can use the bottom chart to select a range within the distribution. We will show an example soon enough.

First - notice the information under 'Marker' - it refers to the white line on the probability distribution. In this example I was curious to see how many times TSLA stock had a larger than 5% move to the downside. To do what we placed the marker so that X states -5% and the information we get is the following: the bar located where the marker contains all instances between -5.5% and -5% and the total number of times TSLA has had returns in that region is 14 times. Below that where it says 'Percentile' we can see that 4.65% of all occurrences fell below -5%. 

Now let's see the example of the 'Selected Range' information in action and how we can use it for a trade:

WORK Probability Distribution by Convex Value Platform

First of all - notice how we used the bottom chart to only select the part of the probability distribution with returns above 0. When doing that - the main chart adjusts to only display the selected range. We can then see under the 'Selected Range' information how the instances where WORK had positive daily returns correspond to 51.25% of all the instances. Further - we can see what the highest instance was in this range - 14.96%.

We can see this 14.96% on the main chart - it's that lonely little bar where the white marker is located. We can also see under the 'Marker' section where it says 'Count 1' how there is only one instance with returns this size.

One way we use this specific chart to make an options trade is that we found options that allowed us to win if WORK did not make a 20% move on a single day. We came to this chart and saw that it has never made a 20% move. In fact - it has only made moves of size lower than 15% and you count how many times it's done that with a single hand. So we put on the trade and made a 10% return in one day.

Also, notice how the size of the bars is different than in the TSLA chart. That is because with the slider above the main chart you have the ability to adjust the width of the bars - like so:

WORK Probability Distribution with a small number of bars - Convex Value Platform

WORK Probability Distribution with a large number of bars - Convex Value Platform

Finally, you might wonder what the lemon and Jalapeño icons are on the left-hand sidebar on the main screen. They are the upcoming features. This platform is undergoing constant enhancements and we roll out new features unlike anything you've seen - seriously. The tool featured here is only one of the many to come ( or already there? ).

We have limited spots for this subscription - and as more features begin to be released the price will increase. Subscribe now to secure this price.

If you wish to receive the daily newsletter to the 10%+ a month options trading operation that utilizes this software - you can find it at https://convex.substack.com.

Questions, comments, support: 

convex.value [at] gmail [dot] com